Texas’ hot housing market might be cooling down … or not?

As providing funding for real estate projects which include new construction as well as fix-n-flip loans and long-term rental loans, we keep our eyes on the market economics that might impact our clients.

The pandemic price run-up for homes has been helpful for some of our investors especially to mitigate the rising cost of lumber and other materials. In major Texas cities from the end of 2020 through much of 2021, the median house price soared!!! Here’s the difference in cost between September 2021 and September 2022:

  • D-FW: $298,884 (Sept. ’20) to $350,000 (Sept. ’21). Change: + $51,116 
  • Houston: $261,000 (Sept. ’20) to $300,000 (Sept. ’21). Change: + $39,000 
  • San Antonio: $255,000 (Sept. ’20) to 294,950 (Sept. ’21). Change: + $39,950 
  • Austin: $350,318 (Sept. ’20) to $448,00 (Sept. ’21). Change: + $97,682 

The A&M researchers expect the price per square foot to keep going up in the next several years, but not anything like what we have just seen. Home prices have risen and so have property taxes. Landlords want to pass costs to renters and renters are not immune.

New research from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) found that renters were about 3X more likely than homeowners to miss payments this year.  Renters may be vulnerable to the expiration of expanded pandemic unemployment benefits.  Therefore, we recommend our long-term buy-and-hold investors be sure to run background checks on potential renters.

From Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University: “With lumber prices falling, total Texas housing starts increased for the second consecutive quarter. Zonda data revealed roughly 38,000 homes broke ground in the Texas Triangle in 3Q2021, pushing single-family housing starts up 3.9 percent on a quarterly basis amid strengthening economic conditions and robust housing demand. Housing starts in North Texas and Austin reached an all-time high, increasing 8 and 13.8 percent, respectively, from last quarter. “

Read more stats here:  https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Lastly, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in Freddie Mac’s survey was 3.11% during the week ending December 2, up one basis point from the previous week. The rate averaged 3.07% in both October and November. All rates quoted have fees and points averaging 0.6% to 0.7% of the loan amount.   

If you’re planning to buy a distressed property, now may be a good time to buy. Just make sure you’re aware of the risks and understand what you’re getting into.  Distressed homes offer a unique buying opportunity for real investors, but the average home buyer should probably look elsewhere. 

If you need funding, apply now. I am working online with the rest of you.  

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http://www.reicapital.cash/

Patrick St. Cin

W – 512-213-2271

Photo by Monstera on Pexels.com

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